Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?

Have you ever heard the [term](https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2024/01/19/key-terms-every-homebuyer-should-learn-infographic/?a=713258-9a8342bcf821027012880bf1d7cccbf7) “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it's all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let's dive into what it is and why it won't drastically impact the housing market. #### What Does Silver Tsunami Mean? A recent article from _HousingWire_ [calls it](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/silver-tsunami-could-have-a-bigger-impact-on-2024s-housing-market-analyst/): ###### _“. . . a colloquialism referring to_ _aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging_ _. . .”_ The thought is that as baby boomers [grow older](https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/27/retiring-soon-why-moving-might-be-the-perfect-next-step/?a=713258-9a8342bcf821027012880bf1d7cccbf7), a significant number will start [downsizing](https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2024/01/17/2-reasons-why-todays-mortgage-rate-trend-is-good-for-sellers/?a=713258-9a8342bcf821027012880bf1d7cccbf7) their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more. The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when? #### Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024 Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won't anytime soon. According to that same [article](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/silver-tsunami-could-have-a-bigger-impact-on-2024s-housing-market-analyst/) from _HousingWire_: ###### _“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market_ _has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon__.”_ Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move. [Data](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/liv-com/2021/2021-home-community-preferences-chartbook.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00479.001.pdf) from the _AARP_ shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (_see chart below_): [](https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240125/20240129-60-percent-of-adults-aged-65-expect-to-stay-in-their-home-as-they-get-older.png) Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at _First American_, [says](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tides-changed-housing-market-experts-113000181.html): ###### _“__Demographics are never a tsunami._ _The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they're going to take about two decades to work their way through.”_ ### Bottom Line If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming [sums](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tides-changed-housing-market-experts-113000181.html) it up best: _“Demographic trends, they don't tsunami. They trickle.”_ Posted by [Ryan Drowne](https://www.thedavidgreengroup.com/blog/author/ryandrowne/) on January 29th, 2024 Enjoy this blog post? 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